Robert B. Cervero, Jin Murakami and Mark A. Miller. 2010. Direct Ridership Model of Bus Rapid Transit in Los Angeles County. Transportation Research Record 2145: 1-7.

Abstract

A Direct Ridership Model (DRM) for predicting Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) patronage in Southern California is estimated. Attributes of bus stops and their surroundings constitute the data observations of DRMs, enabling a fairly fine-resolution of analysis to be carried out on factors that influence ridership. The best-fitting DRM revealed that service frequency strongly influences BRT patronage in Los Angeles County. High intermodal connectivity, with both feeder bus routes and rail-transit services, also significantly induces BRT travel. Population densities are also a significant inducement to BRT patronage and in the case of exclusive-lane BRT services, employment densities are also associated with higher daily boardings. The strong statistical fit of the model bodes well for DRM as a platform for estimating BRT patronage in coming years.